On average, stocks that debuted last year are down 37 per cent from their peak levels.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Retail investors have been the hardest hit in the recent market downturn, with stocks where they hold over 20% falling 45% from their 52-week highs.
The sharp pullback in mid and smallcap stocks signals a cooling-off period in segments that previously attracted considerable investor interest.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
618 companies were part of the billion dollar club when the markets reached all-time highs on September 26, 2024. That number has fallen to 500 following a $1 trillion wipeout in India's market capitalisation amid relentless selling by FPIs.
Buying stocks during a dip, says Amar Nandu, research analyst, Samco Securities, can lead to higher compounding returns when the uptrend begins.
The recent selloff in the Indian equity market has been far more painful for mid and smallcap stocks compared to largecap stocks. The benchmark BSE Sensex is now down 9.5 per cent from its record monthly closing of 84,300 at the end of September last year. In the same period, the BSE MidCap has lost 17 per cent of its value, while the BSE SmallCap has corrected by 17.1 per cent.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
'Though one cannot paint the entire microcap basket with the same brush, investors need to be careful now as to what they're buying.'
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
Had you invested Rs 10,000 each in JSW Steel, Titan Company and Bajaj Finance 20 years ago, when they were just penny stocks (trading below Rs 10), you would have become a millionaire by now.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
'Sectors like e-commerce, small finance, housing finance, and healthcare are in great favour, and people are paying a PEG ratio of up to 5, which is dangerous.' 'Wealth destruction is inevitable.'
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
'Expectations are high regarding the change in LTCG with respect to equity investments.'
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
According to data from BSE, the 4,357 companies available for trade had a combined mcap of around Rs 416 trillion on Tuesday against India's GDP at current prices of Rs 296.6 trillion in FY24.
The universe of stocks trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 50x or more has swelled by 2.5x to 104, indicating the growing froth in the market. In March 2023, the number of stocks with a P/E of 50x and 100x stood at 41 and 3, respectively, which has now grown to 104 and 9, according to an analysis by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE).
As regards mid-caps and small-caps, analysts suggest investors buy only those stocks of those companies where there is earnings visibility for at least a few quarters and where the valuations have become reasonable.
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
Analysts are of the view that long-term investors could continue to hold the stock, irrespective of the MSCI development.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
''The outcome of the state polls may lead to some strategy-related permutations and combinations and the markets may extrapolate it to the likely outcome in the general elections.'
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
As much as Rs 47,810 crore was spent on share buybacks by 48 companies in 2023 -- the highest amount since 2017. This surge in value was largely driven by a few large-sized issues, including those by Tata Consultancy Services (Rs 17,000 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs 10,000 crore), and Wipro (Rs 12,000 crore). In 2022, 58 companies had repurchased shares worth Rs 38,305 crore, according to data from Prime Database.
Eighty per cent, or 60 of the 75 companies that made their debut on the mainboard this financial year, ended their listing day with gains.
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
Water projects firm Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, the 20th company to launch its IPO in the current year, saw its shares closing at a 47 per cent gain over its issue price on Tuesday. Such a huge one-day pop is considered rare; however, it has become the norm this year. The average listing-day gain for these 20 IPOs in 2023 is 34 per cent, and their average gain to date stands at 46 per cent.
Stocks of public sector undertakings (PSUs) have been on fire in the past year as investors cheered an improvement in key operating metrics and embraced counters of these state-owned enterprises, analysts suggest. The S&P BSE PSU Index has gained over 90 per cent in the past year, rising much higher than the S&P BSE Sensex, which has rose nearly 19 per cent during this period, according to ACE Equity data. The BSE PSU Index, reports show, has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28 per cent (including dividends reinvestments) over five years and risen by almost 60 per cent in the past year.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
Investors are reluctant to take long-term positions this year after the spectacular gains in 2023. The delivery-based trades on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have declined to below 36 per cent this year from an average of 38.1 per cent in 2023. Investors tend to seek delivery for stocks where they see a long-term investment opportunity or tactical positional trade.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
Profits of India's top listed companies have been growing at a faster pace than those of their American peers, but when it comes to revenue growth, the order has reversed recently. The combined net profit of the S&P 500 companies was up 14.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during the trailing 12 months (TTM) ended December 2023, as against 17.4 per cent profit growth logged by the BSE 500 companies in the same period. This is the second consecutive year of faster profit growth for the BSE 500 companies.
